There'll be fireworks tonight... but will they be Man's, or Mother Nature's?

This is the first Indepedence Day in recent years that brings a danger of rain and thunder-storms. I'll let the NOAA Storm Prediction Center say it best,
"THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION IS VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70F...AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. WHILE WARM PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN CORES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS... THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS ...WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING/PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BUFFALO/ PITTSBURGH AREAS BY 20-21Z."

In non-meteoroligist jargon, that means the atmosphere is really wet and really unstable, so there could be lots of heavy rain and high wind bursts, but it's too warm aloft and there's not enough wind shear for any serious hail. So will the fireworks be man-made pyrotechnics or lightning? Good question, and we shall see.

My plans are alot simpler and more easily predicted. And you don't need advanced degrees and complex computer models to figure it out either! I'm going to drink beer, sort through more crap, and do a good amount of sitting around and watching the weather. We're grilling Hofmann hots on the Weber tonight, so maybe I'll make some mac salad. If there is indeed fireworks then it's likely Heidi and I will be checking them out, but it's questionable as to where. The convenience of Irondequoit can't be beat, given we both live here currently. My folks' house is just a stone's throw (actually about 3-4 blocks, so you'd better have a hell of an arm!) from the Town Hall, where they launch from. So we just go stand out in the road by the house and have a nearly perfect view of the show. Then we have beer and sit on the front steps watching all the people race each other back to their cars only to get caught in the traffic jam they've all created. It's great fun, and rather amusing.

More to came later!