Under the gun!

It could be an interesting weather day this after-noon. The Storm Prediction Center has determined that our area is within a "moderate" risk category for severe weather from about 2:00 until about 8:00 pm. Here's the official word from the SPC:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEAST OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

and,

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHEAST OHIO BY MID-AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AND INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND SHEAR COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
TORNADOES...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK BEFORE
REACHING THE APPALACHIAN CREST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

We rarely get tornadoes in the Greater Rochester area, and I expect none today, but we'll probably get hammered with some very strong thunderstorms, wind, and possibly some hail. If I'm not mistaken, Wisconsin saw over 20 twisters yesterday, and this is the same system hitting us today. So areas south and west of Rochester may have to keep a foot on the cellar stairs, I fear.

Just why does Rochester evade the threat of tornadoes? A meteorology teacher I had at MCC insisted it's the moderating effect Lake Ontario has on the vicinity. As exciting as I find severe weather, you won't find me complaining that we see very little of it.

I'll provide a detailed report on the storms tomorrow, provided my house and computers aren't swept away by the winds of hell!